PRIN Grant 2022KBTEBN (2023-2025) "Causes of deAth dependence stRuctures and the cOmpositioNal effecT on ovErall mortality (CARONTE)"

Coordinator: Daniele Durante

ABSTRACT

The acronym of this project CARONTE is highly suggestive of its mission and vision
namely addressing open questions on the structure and functioning of competing
death causes and their joint impact on overall mortality through the creation of
innovative bridges between demography and statistics. Cause-specific mortality
patterns do not propagate in isolation but co-evolve via systems of interrelated
patterns that are rooted in the dynamic dependence structures underlying such
causes. Unveiling the endogenous and exogenous determinants that explain the
interplay between multiple death causes and their effects on overall longevity will
unlock unprecedented knowledge to learn experiment and control current and future
mortality dynamics. Despite the availability of recent studies suggesting that a full
understanding of modern mortality trends necessarily requires a finer-scale analysis of
cause-specific mortality the complexity underlying these cause-specific mortality
processes still hinders progress in the field. CARONTE covers this gap by aiming
toward a change of perspective that transforms this complexity into an opportunity. To
this end CARONTE bridges demography and recent advancements in statistical
modeling based on functional data analysis compositional data analysis graphical
models and discrete choice models to develop a unique modeling framework which
can fully learn the complex systems of graphical dependencies underlying causes of
death and unveil their combined effects on overall mortality while incorporating the
functional compositional and discrete nature of these processes. This perspective will
push forward the research frontier by creating new cutting-edge models theories and
health policies that will ultimately lead to improved allocation of health resources and
more detailed evaluation of policies.